TrumpRepubloFascism is Here: How Long Will It Stay? It depends
"Either this nation shall kill racism, or racism shall kill this nation." (S. Jonas, August, 2018)
"How do you spell ICE in German? GESTAPO." (S. Jonas, May, 2025: see App. I, below)
As my regular readers know, I have been writing on Trump and his relation to fascism for quite some time now (see, e.g.: "Is it Hair Trump or Herr Trump?," from late 2015). More recently, I have been writing about Trump, the Republican Party, and fascism, using a freight train metaphor, for example: "The TrumpRepubloFascist Train Arrives on Track One: Some Early Observations," and "The Republo-Fascist Freight Train is Indeed Roaring Down the Track: What Do We Do Now?" It has now arrived in the terminal. Of course, by combining the words "Trump," "the Republican Party," and "fascism," I make it clear that I believe that with either Trump alone, or the Republican Party alone, our nation would not be anywhere near approaching the reality of fascism (and a Fascist State), in the early phases of which we are living. Below, after defining fascism (which, as it happens, I have done many times before --- using essentially the same definition for some years now), I will go on to review briefly how we are already living in its early stages (and I am certainly not alone in that view), and I will go on to discuss one significant historical factor which may well define just how long it stays in place here, in terms of the experiences of other fascist nations.
First, is the definition of "fascism" that I use. Certainly, there are a number of them. This is not to say that mine is better than any of the others. But if one is inclined to define fascism in terms of its poltico/economic nature, I think that mine is useful and [if I may say so] accurate. At the same time, I do not intend to denigrate the socio-cultural definitions. It is just that mine is more useful for me. Regular readers of mine will have seen it on more than one occasion):
"Fascism: a definition: There is a single, all-powerful executive branch of government, in service of a capitalist ruling class that controls, for the most part, the functions of production, distribution, finance, and exchange. There is no separation of the principal governmental powers: executive, legislative, and judicial. There are no independent media. There is a single national ideology, based on some combination of racism, misogyny, religious bigotry and authoritarianism, homophobia, and xenophobia. There is a single political party supporting the movement. There is a state propaganda machine using the big and little lie techniques. There may be a full-blown dictatorship, a charismatic leader, engagement in foreign wars, and the use of the mob/private armies to enforce governmental control."
(See, e.g., Steven Jonas, MD, MPH, https://www.stevenjonaspolitics.com/; Oct. 13, 2022: Click Here. If you want to see how far back I had the then-oncoming Republo-fascists nailed [with Democrats of the era enabling them], see my 1996 book: Click Here [3rd version, 2013].)
Of course, there are many different elements that define the fascist nation/state. But for me, first is that the fascist political/administrative/Executive system is designed to be unitary, without the separation of powers that in one way or another is typical of the modern liberal-capitalist states (since the time that the historical ancestor of the present, Constitutionally-ordered United States, was established in the late 18th century). Under fascism, the State apparatus is almost always a unitary entity. (The one exception to that rule was the Empire of Japan, 1935-45.) Second, the fascist state exists (is put in place/imposed) to serve the interests of a capitalist ruling class. Sometimes that class is unified in its support of fascism. Sometimes it is not, as is the case in the current United States, in which a significant chunk of it is opposed to the imposition of it (e.g., Governor Pritzker of Illinois' Hyatt Hotel chain), to a greater or lesser extent, and more broadly to Trump and that sector of the economic ruling class to which he is beholden. Whether that ruling-class-opposition sector is significant enough, and politically and economically powerful enough, to prevent the total imposition of Trump-Fascism on the nation remains to be seen.)
To briefly review this important subject, under "separation of powers" the three primary functions of any government, the Executive, the Legislative, and the Judicial, are separately held by three different bodies/individuals. (One of the original developers of the concept was by the mid-18th century French political philosopher, Montesquieu. His thinking and writing provided a major inspiration for the framers of the U.S. Constitution.) Of course, Trump and his minions are currently giving the nation a very fast lesson in how the "separation of powers" principle can be over-ridden, if there is a political force that wants to do that, e.g., the Trump-Republo-P2025-fascist force that is fast changing the nature of government in our nation.
See briefly, for example: the with-holding of Congressionally legislated and appropriated funds without legislative authorization, the Federalization of a State National Guard without the cooperation/endorsement of that state's governor, the use of Federal troops for law-enforcement purposes without invoking the Insurrection Act, the ignoring of court orders at least temporarily, the use of Executive Orders to accomplish government functions that are customarily Legislative branch prerogatives, the arrest/imprisonment/deportation of persons without granting them the right to due process (see Appendix I), the arrest of elected officials without due cause and a warrant, and so on and so forth. These are all, to a greater or lesser extent, characteristics of a fascist government, not a liberal democratic constitutional one.
Finally, as to the question "how long might a TrumpRepubloFascist regime stay in power," for one answer we can turn to the experience of previous Fascist governments. While this proposition needs further analysis, it would seem that engaging in a foreign war shortens the time-in-place of a fascist government. The three major fascist powers of the 20th century each engaged in a foreign war (in this case as allies in the same one, World War II). Nazi Germany survived for 11 ÃÆ’Æ’ ? ÃÆ’ à ï ? ? ? ? ? ? ÃÆ’ à ï ? ? ? ? ? ? years. The Empire of Japan, under a fascist-style government lasted about 10 years (1935-45). Fascist Italy, however, was the exception to this rule, staying in power from 1922 to 1945. On the other hand, without engaging in a foreign war, Franco in Spain was in power for close to 30 years. Salazar in Portugal, for 42 years. Pinochet in Chile for 17 years. The "Brazilian Generals" for 21 years. This rule does not always hold, but for the most part it does.
So, how does it apply to the TrumpRepubloFascists? Very briefly for now, if they go to war on Iran, if the historical example holds, that should shorten their time in power. If they stay at home (and Trump himself is fundamentally an Isolationist [even using the old Lindbergh "America First" slogan]) as is a significant chunk of his MAGA base), that would significantly lengthen the time they could predictably stay in power. As for elections shortening their time in power, in my view, it would take some very significant organizing on the Democrats' side to implement that strategy. Following a pattern of theirs that goes back decades, it has been reported that the Republicans are already developing plans to subvert the 2026 elections (and if they are doing that they are already looking at 2028 as well). And of course, what Trump tried in his attempts to reverse the outcome of the 2020 election, through the Courts and through violence, is very much on the record. But for those folks, if-at-first-you-don't-succeed-try-try-again, is a mantra, again from the late 1980s.
So, don't count on the electoral process (even if the Democrats could pull themselves together and the U.S. Left could get its eye on the ball [as they did not do in the 2024 election]). Thus, right now, it looks very bad. But I, and many others to be sure, will be looking for other routes for overthrow of the TrumpRepubloFascists. When I come up with my thoughts on the matter, of course I will be sharing them, in this space and others!
Appendix I: "How is ICE spelled in German? GESTAPO." The Gestapo had the power to arrest anyone they wanted to, with or without a legally-sanctioned "probable cause;" decide on the guilt or innocence of that person in re the crime being charged, without the person having, say, the right to an attorney or to be subject to an established-in-law-judicial procedure; and then upon determining, on their terms, whether or not a crime (as they defined it) had been committed, decide upon, and mete out, punishment as they deemed fit."